USA-IMF/Middle East Conflict/Impact
USA-IMF/Middle East Conflict/Impact
Dateline : April 14, 2026/File
Location : United States
Duration : 1'50
FILE: Washington D.C., USA - Oct 15, 2025 (CCTV - No access Chinese mainland)
1. IMF headquarters
FILE: Washington D.C., USA - Date Unknown (CGTN - No access Chinese mainland)
2. IMF logo
Washington D.C., USA - April 14, 2026 (CCTV - No access Chinese mainland)
3. SOUNDBITE (English) Tobias Adrian, director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF (partially overlaid with shot 4):
"In terms of the energy supply, oil-importing countries and gas-importing countries have been hit particularly hard. And it's the most vulnerable countries in the world that have seen the most outsized impact on their economies. Sub-Saharan African countries, for example, and other low-income countries around the world are hit proportionately more adversely. When you think about, for example, the share of oil and food consumption in your overall consumption basket, that tends to be larger the lower income you have."
++SHOT OVERLAYING SOUNDBITE++
FILE: Bangkok, Thailand - 2026 (CCTV - No access Chinese mainland)
4. Various of people waiting in line, refueling vehicles, motorbikes at gas station
++SHOT OVERLAYING SOUNDBITE++
FILE: Strait of Hormuz - 2011 (CCTV - No access Chinese mainland)
5. Aerial shot of island at Strait of Hormuz
6. Boats sailing through Strait of Hormuz
Washington D.C., USA - April 14, 2026 (CCTV - No access Chinese mainland)
7. SOUNDBITE (English) Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist, IMF (partially overlaid with shots 8-9):
"Every day that this continues and that we have disrupted flows from the Strait of Hormuz, that we have facilities that are destroyed or impaired in terms of producing oil and gas, then the downward assumptions are starting to prevail more, and then we'll move closer and closer to our adverse and possibly even severe scenario. Right now, we think that there is still a reasonable chance. We think that situation is very fluid. We see everything that has happened in the last few days -- in terms of ceasefire, in terms of cessation of hostilities and discussions going on. We think the reference forecast is still in the frame. But every day that passes when we don't have a resolution and the energy crisis is becoming more acute, then the adverse scenario becomes more relevant."
++SHOTS OVERLAYING SOUNDBITE++
FILE: Kharg Island, Iran - 2016-2018 (CGTN - No access Chinese mainland/Al-Arabiya/Persian language TV Stations outside Iran. Strictly No Access BBC Persian/VOA Persian/Manoto TV/Iran International/Radio Farda)
8. Kharg Island, oil facilities
FILE: Bab Oilfield, UAE - 2023 (CGTN - No access Chinese mainland)
9. Various of oil field facilities, pipelines, fire
++SHOTS OVERLAYING SOUNDBITE++
FILE: USA - Date Unknown (CCTV - No access Chinese mainland)
10. Various of U.S. dollar banknotes being printed
Global financial stability risks are mounting as the Middle East conflict deepens, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday in its latest Global Financial Stability Report.
According to the report, although the global financial system has so far absorbed the impact from the conflict, the outlook remains highly uncertain and existing vulnerabilities could magnify risks.
The IMF said several fault lines could test the resilience of the global financial system, from heightened bond market volatility driven by rising debt burdens to mounting pressures on emerging markets as currencies weaken and capital flows reverse. It warned that abrupt tightening of financial conditions could trigger forced selling among leveraged nonbank intermediaries, while rising defaults in private credit risk spilling into broader corporate debt markets.
Additionally, heavy investment in artificial intelligence (AI) was also cited as a potential vulnerability, with the Fund cautioning that momentum could falter if the Middle East conflict drags on.
The report also stressed that continued hostilities could trigger an acute livelihood crisis in the energy sector, particularly affecting low-income countries around the world.
"In terms of the energy supply, oil-importing countries and gas-importing countries have been hit particularly hard. And it's the most vulnerable countries in the world that have seen the most outsized impact on their economies. Sub-Saharan African countries, for example, and other low-income countries around the world are hit proportionately more adversely. When you think about, for example, the share of oil and food consumption in your overall consumption basket, that tends to be larger the lower income you have," said Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department.
Meanwhile, the IMF released its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, which lowered global growth forecasts for 2026 to 3.1 percent, down 0.2 points from January. Inflation is projected to rise to 4.4 percent. The Fund said the key issue facing the global economy is no longer whether it can grow, but how to sustain growth amid profound uncertainty.
The IMF’s latest outlook marks a shift in tone, moving from an emphasis on recovery to a warning that risks are once again dominating the global economy. "The recovery is ongoing," the Fund had said earlier, but now cautions that "risks are once again taking center stage." It added that the challenge is no longer whether growth can continue, but how to sustain it amid profound uncertainty.
The IMF said that while countries are taking steps individually, stronger global cooperation is essential, including a swift end to hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz , warning that only coordinated policy can blunt the economic damage. The Strait, a vital global passage through which about one‑fifth of the world’s oil supply flows, has become a flashpoint in the conflict.
"Every day that this continues and that we have disrupted flows from the Strait of Hormuz, that we have facilities that are destroyed or impaired in terms of producing oil and gas, then the downward assumptions are starting to prevail more, and then we'll move closer and closer to our adverse and possibly even severe scenario. Right now, we think that there is still a reasonable chance. We think that situation is very fluid. We see everything that has happened in the last few days -- in terms of ceasefire, in terms of cessation of hostilities and discussions going on. We think the reference forecast is still in the frame. But every day that passes when we don't have a resolution and the energy crisis is becoming more acute, then the adverse scenario becomes more relevant," said IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
The conflict escalated in late February when Israel and the United States launched joint attacks on Tehran and several other Iranian cities. Iran retaliated with waves of missile and drone strikes against Israeli and U.S. assets across the Middle East, while restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels linked to the two countries.
A two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States took effect on April 8 to end nearly 40 days of fighting, followed by the holding of lengthy talks between the Iranian and U.S. delegations in Islamabad, which ended last Sunday morning without reaching a deal. On Monday, the United States imposed a naval blockade of the Strait, deploying more than 15 warships after peace talks in Islamabad broke down. The operation covers the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea east of the strait, intercepting ships bound for Iranian ports while allowing transit to non‑Iranian destinations.
ID : 8474823
Published : 2026-04-15 10:28
Last Modified : 2026-04-15 18:04:19
Source : China Central Television (CCTV),China Global Television Network (CGTN)
Restrictions : See shotlist
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